Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.358582 0.410417 0.466704 0.532313 0.606634 0.688161 0.784318
2025-08-10 0.269058 0.334375 0.410896 0.506967 0.624165 0.762289 0.937225
2025-08-17 0.202746 0.272019 0.359083 0.476121 0.628887 0.821025 1.080486
2025-08-24 0.160865 0.231989 0.327477 0.464289 0.654411 0.908277 1.271813
2025-08-31 0.128915 0.199155 0.299547 0.452302 0.677416 0.995227 1.475753
2025-09-07 0.109360 0.180207 0.287562 0.460296 0.729034 1.128338 1.762808
2025-09-14 0.087866 0.154214 0.260638 0.441393 0.737677 1.200001 1.970208
2025-09-21 0.073120 0.136227 0.243033 0.433881 0.762321 1.298653 2.232103
2025-09-28 0.060899 0.120166 0.225763 0.423814 0.780771 1.389233 2.492704
2025-10-05 0.054299 0.112968 0.222555 0.437394 0.841242 1.556931 2.903978
2025-10-12 0.046976 0.102954 0.212465 0.436633 0.875586 1.683298 3.258954
2025-10-19 0.041524 0.095624 0.206211 0.442008 0.921814 1.836356 3.681051
2025-10-26 0.037051 0.089738 0.202340 0.452549 0.981760 2.026749 4.206194
2025-11-02 0.030875 0.078812 0.186103 0.434893 0.982461 2.103549 4.522888
2025-11-09 0.025319 0.068116 0.168418 0.411054 0.966503 2.144992 4.774849
2025-11-16 0.021704 0.061365 0.158438 0.402784 0.983098 2.255901 5.185963
2025-11-23 0.018613 0.055262 0.148856 0.393758 0.996556 2.361866 5.600727
2025-11-30 0.016836 0.052296 0.146473 0.401842 1.051307 2.566099 6.259135
2025-12-07 0.014231 0.046381 0.135388 0.385988 1.045644 2.632247 6.612500
2025-12-14 0.012412 0.042342 0.128521 0.379921 1.063435 2.755445 7.114961
2025-12-21 0.010768 0.038434 0.121251 0.371440 1.073604 2.861478 7.589641
2025-12-28 0.010007 0.037183 0.121381 0.383713 1.140824 3.116872 8.463279
2026-01-04 0.008955 0.034698 0.117357 0.383256 1.173108 3.287747 9.144749